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Latest short-term agricultural outlook

The Short-term outlook is based on reflections of market experts within the Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development of the European Commission, using the latest data available. It is published three times per year (in late winter, early summer and early autumn).

• The cereal outlook indicates an above average 2014 harvest for the second year in a row, and a record level of cereal exports for marketing year 2013/14.

Consolidated figures for 2013/14 confirm an above average cereal harvest of 302 million tonnes, supporting a record level of exports expected to reach 42 million tonnes. As a consequence, carry-over stocks are limited and the stock-to-use ratio is expected to recover only partially from 10 to 12%. The new harvest in 2014/15 is expected to be above average for the second year in a row and reach 303 million tonnes.

• EU meat production is seen recovering after two years of tight supplies for beef and pig meat

The mild economic recovery sets the scene for increased meat consumption (and production) throughout the outlook, but political uncertainty, sanitary barriers and self-sufficiency targets in some of the most important trade partners of the EU are expected to drive meat exports down significantly (-4.7%), with pig and poultry meat being the most affected sectors.

• Milk prices, driven by a strong world demand, remain firm despite the record milk collection in the EU

Milk deliveries in the EU were at an all-time high in the first four months of this year. Nevertheless, milk prices remained firm and largely above last year. Although increased supply led initially to price corrections of most dairy products compared to their record levels in 2013, the decline seems to have ended after the seasonal production peak and given strong export demand, especially for powders.

Outlook short term

Source: Agripress    12:57:00|07/07/2014